Once again, the “winds of war” are beginning to gain strength, as  international relationships between Iran and the West (including Israel) continue to deteriorate at a rapid pace.   There is little doubt that the volatile and vociferous  leadership of  Iran has made a decision to develop and strengthen their military capabilities, and to pursue an aggressive course of action against  neighboring countries.   The imposition of economic sanctions against the Iranians by Western nations has done nothing to weaken the Iranian’s resolve to develop nuclear weapons capabilities, and have failed to bring the Iranian government back to the “bargaining table.”  Although sanctions have impacted the lifestyles of the Iranian people by depriving them of certain imported goods, there is no sign that sanctions have in any way slowed down the government’s grand plan to develop nuclear weapons, to destroy the Nation of Israel, and to dominate the Middle East through force of arms.  This point was made abundantly clear yesterday in a speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, when he compared Israel to a “cancer” that must be removed.  By all appearances, the Iranian government has committed itself to war and has no intention of backing down, regardless of the consequences.

The militant attitude of the Iranian government, its continuing efforts to develop nuclear weapons, its threats against the West (particularly the U.S. and Israel), and its threats to close off the Straight of Hormuz  have now escalated to the point of being intolerable.  According to Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs, Moshe Yaalon, the Iranians have come close to developing ballistic missiles with a range of 6,000 miles, which would be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the East coast of the United States.  They already have missiles with a range of over 1,200 miles, well within the reach of any country within the Middle East.  Mr. Yaalon, in a meeting with U.S. officials,  indicated that all of Iran’s nuclear sites could be taken out with a sustained and coordinated attack by the Israeli and U.S. military.  Many defense experts do not, in fact, support Mr. Yaalon’s position, saying that much Iran’s military capabilities are buried deeply underground, well protected from assaults from the air.  The time to neutralize  Iran’s military capabilities may have finally come; however, the task will require a strong stomach and steely resolve on the part of war-weary Americans.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, speaking at the NATO Meeting in Brussels, said earlier this week that there was a “strong likelihood” that Israel would strike Iran in April, May or June.  This unusually candid statement by Mr. Panetta should be taken by the Iranian government as a “warning shot across the bow”.  The truth of the matter is that Iran’s military would be very quickly defeated by vastly superior Israeli and American forces.  In some ways this is reminiscent of the terrible days leading up to the Second World War, when Hitler held strongly to the delusion that the world would not be able to stand up to Nazi aggression.  Let us all hope that the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei does not hold fast to a similar delusion.

Rich

At the same time that  U.S. troops in Afghanistan are putting their lives on the line  fighting Taliban and al Qaida insurgents, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Kabul.  As could be expected, Ahmadinejad has taken this opportunity to sharply criticize the U.S. for its military presence in Afghanistan, and to emphasize that Americans will never be able to bring peace to Afghanistan through military means.  The Iranian President further stated that the presence of  U.S. troops in Afghanistan is only escalating tensions and creating a higher level of instability.  In response to Mr. Ahmadinejad’s remarks,  Secretary of  Defense, Robert Gates, accused the Iranian leader of playing a “double game”  in Afghanistan by professing support for the Afghan government while undermining U.S.-led efforts to improve the government and stabilize the country.  As accusations fly back and forth between Washington and Tehran, the real truth of the matter is that Hamid Karzai is the one playing the “double game”.

The Karzai government has received billions of dollars of  foreign assistance by playing off  Iran against the United States, and all the while enjoying protection from his enemies by the U.S. military.  Out of one side of his mouth, Karzai thanked Ahmadinejad for his long-time assistance, and called the Islamic state a “real friend”.  Out of the other side of his mouth he thanked Secretary Gates for American help in fighting off insurgents, and called America a friend of Afghanistan.  Even as U.S. troops are engaging in deadly battles in the southern provinces, Mr. Karzai is discussing with Ahmadinejad the possibility of building a railroad linking Iran and Tajikistan through Afghanistan.

It should come as no surprise that the Afghan government is interested in building a stronger alliance with their Muslim brothers in Iran.  Not only do both countries share a thousand mile border, but Iran, being the dominant power in the region, is clearly in a position to influence internal policy in Afghanistan when the time is right.  At the present time, Tehran  is content to let American blood be spilled battling the insurgents, knowing full well that when the battle is over, and American troops leave the region,  the Afghans will elect a pro-Iranian government.   For the Iranians, what cannot be reasonably obtained on the battlefield will be eventually be  obtained through the ballot box.

-Rich

On October first I alluded to my shock that General Stanley McChrystal appeared on 60 Minutes and postured about the future direction of the U.S. in Afghanistan. Having worked for a government agency for a number of years, I am well-aware of the importance of following “the chain of command.” Watching McChrystal on 60 Minutes I had two thoughts. One thought was that he was going rogue. The second thought was that he was set up to do this in order to get the pulse of public reaction. I have settled on the notion that McChrystal has gone rogue.

In further delving into this I have read that in late August General McChrystal submitted a 66 page confidential report to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates which was somehow leaked to The Washington Post three weeks later. In General McChrystal’s appearance before the Institute of International and Strategic Studies in London,  McChrystal, much as he stated on 60 Minutes, said that the American and Allied forces need “to respect the people” and “change our mindset.”  He also has been lobbying for 40,000 additional troops at a time when many in this country are beginning to see Afghanistan as another Vietnam. Add to this the fact that General McChrystal,  in addressing the IISS in London, referred to Vice President Biden’s plan of scaling back in Afghanistan as “Chaos-istan.” That was neither the time nor the place to express such views about the Vice President’s stance.

McChrystal has been provocative and high-profile in expressing his views. His actions are reminiscent of General Douglas MacArthur who in effect commandeered the power of President Truman to make foreign policy by proposing an escalation of the conflict in Korea. Truman dismissed him due to insubordination.

I do not believe that the public determination of strategic policy in Afghanistan is in General McChrystal’s job description. While he is an adviser to President Obama it is unseemly for him to go public, or rogue if you will, in stating his own objectives for Afghanistan. He should be reminded that while his troops are required to follow the chain of command, he is required to do no less.

—cher