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Golan Heights May Become Another Gaza Strip

11 January 2012 8 Comments

Over the last year the very small, but militarily powerful nation of Israel has watched cautiously as its neighbors have struggled with internal rebellions and regime changes. Located in a region of the world that has been known for decades for political instability and volatility, Israel has recently witnessed an unprecedented shuffling of the political deck of cards. As a matter of national policy, the Israeli government has largely refrained from making public comments about the political affairs of its neighbors, and has avoided any kind of direct involvement in the various uprisings. This has been a wise policy, considering that Israel has been universally vilified, and considered as a common enemy by all of its Arab neighbors.

Recently, however, the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, uncharacteristically made a public statement that the fall of the Syrian government was imminent. Much like the former regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the Syrian regime is dominated by a minority Muslim Sect, which is strongly opposed by the majority of the people who follow a different strain of Islam. In the case of Syria, the al-Assad regime is primarily Shiite, and the population of the country is primarily Sunni. It is highly likely that Ehud Barak is correct in his assessment that the regime will fall, since recent history in the region has shown that religious considerations always win out over the political muscle of minority governments. Although the Israeli government is betting on ultimate victory by the Syrian rebel forces, it is still very unusual that it would say so publicly.

The reason why the Israeli government has deviated from its policy of “silence” concerning the affairs of Syria is that the fall of the al-Assad regime will have a profound effect on an issue that is near and dear to all Israelis: immigration. The Israeli government has predicted that tens of thousands of former al-Assad backers and followers of Shiite Islam will flood into the occupied Golan Heights to seek asylum from political retribution. In essence, the Israeli government could be faced with yet another occupied territory, similar to the Gaza Strip, that is teeming with Arab refugees, and looking to make future territorial claims. Unfortunately, there is little that the Israeli government could do to stop the flood of Syrian refugees, other than to prepare its own people for the worst.

Although many Americans view the revolutions and upheavals of the “Arab Spring” in a positive light, the world (and especially the Israelis) may soon find out that regime changes often have negative ramifications. This may be the case for Syria, when the Sunnis take over political power and everyone else heads for the hills of Golan!

Rich

8 Comments »

Judie said:

Rich, let’s ask the Republican candidates what THEY would do if all this comes to fruition.

# 11 January 2012 at 2:27 pm

Carpetbagger said:

They have to change the name of that place. It sounds like a New Jersey suburb. Wouldn’t Syrians go to Turkey or Lebanon before Israel? These are people who support Iran and Hezbollah.

# 11 January 2012 at 3:48 pm

Rich (author) said:

Judie,
Another refugee problem in Israel could be problematic for any American Administration, especially if Iran provides military support.

# 11 January 2012 at 6:36 pm

Rich (author) said:

Bagger,
The “Alawite Sect” of Shiite Islam, currently in power in Syria, may find they have no friends among the other Shiite Sects in the neighboring countries. Probably, the Alawites will look upon the Golan heights as a place of refuge where they will be protected by the Israeli army from the angry masses they have persecuted for so many years. It’s a very strange world, isn’t it?

# 11 January 2012 at 6:44 pm

Judie said:

Rich, if the Republicans get in, we will almost certainly go to war with Iran. This country just can’t take any more wars!!!

# 12 January 2012 at 11:31 am

admin (author) said:

Judie,
Let’s hope that both the Iranians and the Republicans come to their senses.

# 12 January 2012 at 1:34 pm

Judie said:

The republicans want things their own way, as do the iranians. The difference is that America is supposed to be WAY more sophistocated than Iran, but the ultra conservative republicans can’t or won’t catch up with the rest of us. Most of America believes iran’s president to be a nut-job and isn’t at all surprised at some of the things he does. Let’s hope that come November, the rest of the world doesn’t think OUR president is a nut-job as well.

# 13 January 2012 at 1:21 pm