“Let the games begin”  was the rallying cry made four days ago by top U.S. and South Korean military commanders, as the two nations engaged in high publicized, joint military exercises along Korea’s east coast.  Although the  exercises were touted as routine military drills, the message sent to North Korea was clear and unambiguous; the United States is ready, willing and able to counter any acts of aggression initiated by Pyongyang.   An equally clear message was delivered to South Korea concerning the United States government’s resolve to support them should North Korea launch an attack.  There is little doubt among politicians in the U.S. and South Korea that it was time to let Pyongyang know that further acts of aggression (similar to the torpedoing of the Cheonan) will not be tolerated.  However, there is plenty of doubt that the joint military exercises will have any impact at all on North Korea’s plans to  further develop nuclear weapons capabilities.

In a  sense, the United States and South Korea have engaged in the same kind of “saber rattling” as North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Il.  In fact, North Korea initially made threats they would intervene militarily if the U.S. and South Korean conducted  the joint exercises off the east coast.  Like most threats from Kim Jung Il, his words  have proven to be empty rhetoric.  It is yet to be seen whether or not U.S. and South Korean forces would actually retaliate if another minor (or even major) provocation occurred, or whether, in fact, the U.S. is doing some saber rattling of its own.

Lying slightly below the surface of simmering hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, are the Chinese and American spheres of influence.  The Chinese support of North Korea, both economically and politically, is not likely to waver as long as Kim Jung Il refrains from taking actions that would be counter to Chinese interests.  Time and time again, the Chinese have blocked severe U.N.  Security Council sanctions against North Korea, including a resolution blaming them for the torpedo attack on the Cheonan.  Consequently, Kim Jung Il will not make a serious military move, including the use of nuclear weapons, without the consent and approval of the Chinese.  Likewise, the South Korean military will not make a serious military move against the North Koreans (even a retaliatory strike) without the approval of the U.S.

The joint military exercises among the U.S. and South Koreans amount to nothing more than another shot over the bow in the “war of words” going on in East Asia.  Most likely, the rapidly growing economic relationship between the U.S. and China will help to ensure that a military conflict in Korea doesn’t ruin the chances of continued economic prosperity for both countries.   In the meantime, China will not alienate North Korea with sanctions or words of reproof; they will simply keep the North Koreans isolated, hungry, and dependent.

Rich