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Nouri al-Maliki : Dictator or Diplomat?

15 April 2010 7 Comments

: Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As you may recall, it was only a few weeks ago (March 7, 2010 to be exact) that national elections were held in Iraq to determine the future course of this war-torn nation. Unfortunately, the elections determined just about nothing, other than a desire by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to maintain the status quo. Maliki’s method for maintaining his power is really quite simple; first of all he ignores the fact that Ayad Allawi, the head of the Iraqiya Party, actually got more votes than he did, secondly, Maliki uses the power of his office to alter the election outcome, and thirdly, he refuses to meet with Ayad Allawi to even discuss the forming of a new government. In short, Mr. Maliki’s grand political strategy is to ignore the elections results , and hope that the whole ugly mess will just go away. The only trouble with this strategy is that it will be a path that almost certainly leads to sectarian war; and probably sooner rather than later.

: Image by Getty Images via Daylife

In essence, the elections in Iraq were about the kind of government that the people wanted to embrace. Allawi, a secular Shiite, attracted millions of votes from both Sunnis and Shiites, and proposed, in part, a reconciliation with Iraq’s Baathist Party loyalists. He has repeatedly warned that a continuation of the religious Shiite government’s policies of exclusion would lead to renewed bloodshed. So far, Allawi’s warnings have come true. In a recent speech, Allawi went so far as to say ” It’s going to be very dangerous, it’s going to be counter-productive, and the backlash will be severe. The whole foundation of whatever infant democracy we’ve built will be ruined”. As proof of this, at least ninety people have been killed in attacks over a five day period, and there are signs that the violence is beginning to spread. In a somewhat dangerous, and perhaps desperate move, Ayad Allawi sent a delegation to neighboring Iran in an effort to get support from the Islamic Republic’s leadership, who have made no secret of their disdain for the current, al-Maliki regime.

As could be expected, Allawi has asked the U.S. government to intervene on his behalf, and to aggressively prevent sectarian violence from occurring. Although this move would be a giant step backwards for U.S. policy in Iraq, it should come as no surprise. Over the last two years, Prime Minister al-Maliki has been consolidating power within his “State of Law” Party, and has shown an increasing unwillingness to listen to anyone (including the U.S. ) outside his Shiite group of supporters. It is, unfortunately, unlikely that Maliki will relinquish power any time soon, and equally unlikely that the U.S. government will become involved in any meaningful way. As a result of this, Iraq will continue to see a significant increase in sectarian violence, and probably will descend into a state of civil war. When that happens, the wisest move for the U.S. would be to stand aside and let the inevitable take place.

Rich

7 Comments »

Dorothy Stahlnecker said:

This is such a sad yet true analysis of what most Americans already know. I often wonder when our politicians will realize we understand what is behind our need to be in countries which have had these wars forever and will continue until the end of time. However, the need for war is almost always fueled for the wrong reasons, and I fear we will be there (even with our president) who promised to get us out of these countries, because he gets it..wars make money for his contributors to campaigns and in the end (our soldiers are collateral damage) to the means of power and greed for the many companies who make millions in these countries.

Thus, I hope the tea party, radical as they sometimes are referenced, continues to make progress, don’t take on the old boys, who are now scrambling to be recognized by the up and coming party, and it begins to make a difference in how things are done. It’s a challenge, however, I’m for not voting for any incumbent, taking a chance and starting over it’s sadly the best we can hope for.

Dorothy from grammology
grammology.com

# 16 April 2010 at 4:19 am

One of The Guys said:

His survey question, “Do you think a state run militia will lead to more violence?”

Press 1 for Yes.

Press 2 for No.

When I looked at my phone all I could see were #1s. In fact there wasn’t even a #2 on my phone. That is so weird.

This is scary as hell!

# 16 April 2010 at 8:17 am

Chris J said:

This seems like round two. Saddam H was set up to protect oil interests and got out of hand and in the way. Now a new dictator in the making.

Tribal affiliations are the norm, not democracy. America can force the issue at great cost, but is it worth it? So far the war has helped to create the mess, just different from the last mess, but still a mess.

# 16 April 2010 at 11:31 am

RE- BadGalsRadio said:

Rich when the US leaves Iraq so will al Maliki.
the only reason he’s still occupying the position is because
he has the US Government propping him up. he is a looser in
every sense of the word politically. there is no reality to
government in Iraq as long as it’s fronted by a third party;
purely for the sake of their resources. Oil, Bloody Oil.

# 17 April 2010 at 3:16 pm

admin (author) said:

Dorothy S.,
Unfortunately, at the core of the “tea party” movement are right-wing radicals who are willing to do anything to bring down the current government. Radicals like Limbaugh, Hannity, Palin and McConnell know that if you repeat a lie often enough, people will begin to believe it. Voting against the incumbents will do nothing but ensure a Republican return to power in November, and an end to anything progressive. Do we really want to see a return to the reactionary politics of the past?

# 18 April 2010 at 9:57 am

admin (author) said:

One of The Guys,
You’re right, it is scary as hell! Yet this is the kind of reaction that the conservative leaders are striving for. What the right-wingers cannot accomplish through the ballot box they will accomplish though fomenting insurrection.

# 18 April 2010 at 10:03 am

admin (author) said:

RE,
The U.S. government needs to stay out of Iraqi politics, and continue the troop withdrawals regardless of the internal political situation. I think it is inevitable that al Maliki will be overthrown if he continues to cling to power, and equally inevitable that a pro-Iranian government will emerge. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the new, pro-Iranian, Iraqi government ended up selling all their oil to China, and told the U.S. to go to hell.

# 18 April 2010 at 10:15 am