The first step in a long and complicated  political process was completed today, as Iraqis from across the country attempted to cast their ballots.  The voting for  thousands of political candidates transpired in spite of an ominous increase in sectarian violence over the last month, which was intended to derail the democratic process.  In addition to numerous bombings and mortar attacks by Iraqi insurgents, al Qaida warned that anyone taking part in the voting process would risk “God’s wrath and the mujaheddin weapons.”  Millions of Iraqis voted in spite of the dangers involved. The particularly violent and highly divisive election will be a good indicator of whether or not the country can overcome the sectarian divisions that have plagued it since the 2003 U.S.-lead invasion. It may also be a good indicator of whether or not the U.S. can continue the process of troop withdrawals.

President Al-Maliki, in his bid for re-election, is primarily being challenged by two powerful and influential coalitions.  The first group, led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, is a coalition  of secular Shiites, who have teamed up with a number of Sunni groups.   This coalition has promised to keep Iraq a secular nation, and to diffuse sectarian tensions through  a process of inclusion.  The second group, led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is a coalition of  mainly Shiite religious groups, intent on turning Iraq into a theocracy.  This coalition is pushing for closer ties to Iran; its large and bellicose neighbor to the north.  In essence, the election is a crossroad, where Iraqis will have to decide whether to move away from sectarian tensions and institute democratic principles of government, or whether they will continue along the fragmented path toward civil war.

The political and economic interests of Iran, and Iran’s desire to become the region’s undisputed super-power cannot be overemphasized as a significant factor influencing the Iraqi election.  If  Muqtada al-Sadr should gain power, there will most likely be a rapid movement toward the curtailing human rights,  and the institution of Islamic fundamentalist laws.  The al-Sadr government will quickly turn to Iran for military assistance in eliminating all political resistance  within the country.  This unfortunate scenario could bring to a halt the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and the likelihood of armed conflict with Iranian military forces.

The unintended consequences of America’s move to topple Saddam Hussein could be a military conflict with its much more powerful and militarily capable neighbor to the north.   Over the next few months, as the implications of the Iraqi elections come into focus,  U.S. policy makers may have to decide whether to continue the pull-out of troops from Iraq, or to risk getting entangled in another, probably much bloodier, regional conflict.

-Rich