This week President Obama will sign a $7.5 billion aid bill for Pakistan, to be disbursed in $1.5 billion increments over a five year time frame.   On the surface the bill is intended to be used for the construction of new schools, hospitals and other infra-structure development projects; however, beneath the surface the bill would require Pakistan to take military action against the Taliban, work against nuclear proliferation, and “cease” all support of terrorist groups.  In addition, the continuation of military aid will require that the Pakistanis dismantle terrorist bases of operation.  Clearly, the White House has required a “quid pro quo” for the privilege of receiving U.S. taxpayer’s money, and it is equally clear that  Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is desperate to show his countrymen that he is capable of bringing in large amounts of foreign aid.

Unfortunately, the $7.5 billion aid bill has only acted to infuriate the military leaders in Pakistan, energize Zardari’s political opposition and cause a wave of anti-American sentiment within the population at large.  The military, in particular, are incensed that the bill would require the U.S. Secretary of State to present a “monitoring report” to Congress twice a year.  Among other things, the report would measure the progress that Pakistan has made in improving civilian control over the military, including the appointment of senior officers.  These provisions in the bill are widely viewed as an intolerable infringement upon Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Since President Zardari’s “triumph” in extracting such a large sum of money from the U.S. government was rapidly turning into a political fiasco, he was obliged to send his foreign minister, Mehmood Qureshi, to Washington to meet with U.S. lawmakers.  Contrary to the wording of the aid bill, Senator Kerry,Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committe, insisted that the legislation had no intention to compromise Pakistan’s sovereignty, nor does it seek to micro-manage any aspect of Pakistan’s military or civilian operations.  Having received the proper assurances, and made the appropriate protests, Foreign Minister Qureshi returned to Pakistan.

In the short run the clear winners in the “Pakistani Aid Bill” flap are President Obama, who got major concessions and promises of cooperation from the Pakistani Government, and President Zardari, who got bragging rights to a number of new schools and hospitals in Pakistan.  The clear loser is the once-powerful Pakistani military, which has been forced to agree to some measure of accountability to the civilian authorities.  If the deal holds together, both the interests of the United States and of Pakistan will also be well served over the long run.   The danger is that the U.S. aid bill, although accepted by the civilian government in Pakistan, will result in a military coup.  If that happens, all bets are off for any further Pakistani assistance in the U.S. war against terror.

—Rich